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Chapter 11： Global Contagion Begins ＇7：55＇
第十一章： 全球性的影响开始了
Onscreen caption： Bangkok； Thailand
字幕：曼谷，泰国
By early 1997； Southeast Asia's rapid economic boom was overheating。 Sirivat Voravetvuthikun was one of many who thought the good times would never end。
到1997年初，东南亚快速的经济崛起达到了白热化的程度。Sirivat Voravetvuthikun 是很多以为这样的好日子永远不会结束的人中的一员。
SIRIVAT VORAVETVUTHIKUN； Former Real Estate Developer； Thailand： Ever since I was a child； I have been wanting to be a multimillionaire。 I wanted to be rich。 I wanted to do something that no one has done build a luxurious condominium。 I knew a lot of rich people and multimillionaires would like to take time off to play golf； to enjoy the fresh air in the mountains； which you cannot find in Bangkok。
SIRIVAT VORAVETVUTHIKUN，曾是泰国的地产开发商：自从我还是个孩子的时候起，我就一直期待着要成为一个百万富翁。我想要成为富人。我想要做一些别人没有做过的事情 – 建造一座豪华的公寓。我知道很多富人和百万富翁都希望到山里休假去打高尔夫球，去享受你在曼谷找不到的新鲜空气。
I looked at the golf course。 It's designed by Jack Nicklaus。 I put my effort into making it one of the most beautiful condominiums in Thailand。 Still today； with the mountains in the background； with a fairway and a lake in front of the condominium； it's really beautiful。
我看了这个高尔夫球场，是由JACK NICKLAUS 设计的。我为了要把它建成泰国最美的豪华公寓之一做出了很多努力。直到今天，有这些山峦作背景，公寓前面的高尔夫球道和湖泊映衬着它，确实很美。
ANAND PANYARACHUN； Prime Minister of Thailand； 19911993： People were just buying apartments and condominiums like they were gambling。 And they were tempted by this easy money； tempted by this easy profit。
ANAND PANYARACHUN，泰国总理，1991 – 1993：那时人们购买公寓和豪华公寓就象在赌博。而且他们也被这种轻易得来的金钱和利益所驱使。
NARRATOR： During the '90s； Thailand had opened up its capital markets。 For the first time； local businesses could borrow money from foreign banks which offered lower interest rates。
旁白：在九十年代，泰国开放了它的资本市场。当地的企业第一次可以向利息比较低的外国银行贷款了。
ANAND PANYARACHUN： People would e and knock on your door and plead with you to borrow； be they European or Japanese banks。 The Western financial world； the banks or the financial panies； they came and begged us to borrow from them。
ANAND PANYARACHUN：人们会来敲你的门，恳请你借钱，无论是欧洲银行还是日本银行。西方金融界，银行或是金融机构，他们来乞求我们向他们借钱。
NARRATOR： In just four years； loans to Thai businesses had tripled to over 200 billion。 American and European governments encouraged the inflow of money。
旁白：只用了四年，对泰国的企业的贷款就增长了两倍，达到两千亿美元。美国和欧洲国家的政府鼓励这种资本的输入。
ROBERT RUBIN： Oh； yeah。 We were very strong advocates of opening up capital markets and the benefits that could flow there from； but we were also strong advocates at the same time； because we recognized the tie of developing the banking systems； the capital markets； and developing regulatory systems； none of which is easy。
罗伯特。鲁宾：噢，是的。我们当时是非常提倡开放资本市场及宣传由此可以带来的好处的。但是，同时我们也强调发展银行体系，资本市场与发展调控体系的联系。我们意识到这一切都不容易。
DANIEL YERGIN： And there was an underlying flaw in the system that people really didn't focus very much on； which was the institutional weakness。 What that meant is the banking systems were not well developed； securities laws were not well developed。 They had not kept up with the development of these economies and their integration into the world economy。
DANIEL YERGIN：而且，当时在体系的内部有一个没有被人们充分关注的内在的问题，即体制上的弱点。这意味着银行体系并没有得到很好的发展；安全法没有得到很好的发展。它们没能与这些经济的发展保持同步，也没能与世界经济接轨。
NARRATOR： Thailand's Central Bank had kept its currency artificially high； fueling the speculative bubble。
旁白：泰国的中央银行人为地将它的货币币值保持在高水平，助长了投机的泡沫。
The International Monetary Fund； which acts as a bank of last resort to countries in financial trouble； began to worry that Thailand was heading for a fall。
国际货币基金组织，作为那些遇到金融危机国家的最后的救命稻草，开始担心泰国正在走向衰落。
STANLEY FISCHER； First Deputy Managing Director； International Monetary Fund； 19942001： I went to Bangkok in May 1997。 It was full of cranes everywhere； and it looked like the boom would never end。 But they were very weak banks who were lending against buildings which were never going to be filled。
STANLEY FISCHER，国际货币基金组织第一副总干事，19942001：我于1997年5月去了曼谷。当时到处都是吊车，看上去就是感觉这种高速发展永远都不会结束。但是有很多弱小的银行将资金贷给那些以永远都不会建起来的楼房作抵押的项目。
NARRATOR： Muang Thong Thani was a sign of the times a "；new city"； built from scratch for 700；000 people。 It was meant to be bigger than Boston。 But almost no one was moving in。
旁白：MUANG THONG THANI 是那个时代的一个标志 —— 一座为70万人口拔地建起的“新城”。它本来是要建成比波士顿还要大的城市。但是几乎没有人搬进去。
MARK MOBIUS： The vision was great。 The vision was to take this huge tract of land and build a city； basically。 between the downtown congested Bangkok and the airport。 So the concept was excellent。 The problem was it was financed by
MARK MOBIUS：那个愿景是美妙的。那个愿景基本上就是在这一片巨大的土地上建造一座城市。问题出在它是用美元资金来支持的。
NARRATOR： Thailand's currency； known as the baht； was pegged to the dollar。 As the Thai economy weakened； financial markets sensed this policy couldn't last。
旁白：泰国的货币，铢，是和美元挂钩的。当泰国经济疲软下来后，资本市场就意识到这一政策不会长久了。
STANLEY FISCHER： Thailand had fixed the value of its currency in terms of dollars。 It had a fixed exchange rate。 And as people began to wonder； "；Well； do they actually have enough dollars to always be able to give me dollars in exchange for the baht； the Thai currency I have？；"； and when they begin to wonder about that； they start asking for the dollars； and then they attack the currency。
STANLEY FISCHER：泰国固定了本国货币与美元的比价。它固定了兑换率。人们开始猜想了，“他们真的有足够的美元来随时给我兑换我手里的泰铢吗？”而当他们开始考虑这些事情的时候，他们就开始需求美元了，从而打击了泰国货币。
MARK MOBIUS： The Central Bank kept saying no； no； no。 And they were shelling out the ； and of course any hedge fund manager looking at that would say； "；Hey； these guys are going to be in trouble； and I'm going to short the Thai baht。"；
MARK MOBIUS：中央银行一直在说不，不，不。他们出售美元以保护本国货币。所以，他们的外汇储备迅速降低，而那些对冲基金经理人看到这种情况就会说：“哈， 这些人要有麻烦了，我可要对泰铢作空。
NARRATOR： The baht came under relentless market pressure。 In July 1997； the Thai government was forced to devalue。
旁白：泰铢面临强大的市场压力。1997年7月，泰国政府被迫降低币值。
The bubble had burst。 The Asian financial crisis was about to begin。
泡沫破灭了。亚洲金融危机即将开始。
SIRVAT VORAVETVUTHIKUN： When the crisis hit； I realized my fate。 I could not sell a single unit when the crisis hit。
SIRVAT VORAVETVUTHIKUN：当危机来临时，我意识到了我的命运。当�