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absurdum/ of war。〃 They are； and it is to the engineers； the
ironmasters； the workers and the inventive talent of Great
Britain and France that we must look to ensure that it is in
Germany； the great teacher of war； that this demonstration of
war's ultimate absurdity is completed。
For forty years Frankenstein Germany invoked war； turned every
development of material and social science to aggressive ends；
and at last when she felt the time was ripe she let loose the new
monster that she had made of war to cow the spirit of mankind。
She set the thing trampling through Belgium。 She cannot grumble
if at last it comes home； stranger and more dreadful even than
she made it； trampling the German towns and fields with German
blood upon it and its eyes towards Berlin。
This logical development of the Tank idea may seem a gloomy
prospect for mankind。 But it is open to question whether the
tremendous development of warfare that has gone on in the last
two years does after all open a prospect of unmitigated gloom。
There has been a good deal of cheap and despondent sneering
recently at the phrase； 〃The war that will end war。〃 It is still
possible to maintain that that may be a correct description of
this war。 It has to be remembered that war； as the aeroplane and
the Tank have made it； has already become an impossible luxury
for any barbaric or uncivilised people。 War on the grade that
has been achieved on the Somme predicates an immense
industrialism behind it。 Of all the States in the world only
four can certainly be said to be fully capable of sustaining war
at the level to which it has now been brought upon the western
front。 These are Britain； France； Germany； and the United States
of America。 Less certainly equal to the effort are Italy； Japan；
Russia； and Austria。 These eight powers are the only powers
/capable of warfare under modern conditions。/ Five are
already Allies and one is incurably pacific。 There is no other
power or people in the world that can go to war now without the
consent and connivance of these great powers。 If we consider
their alliances； we may count it that the matter rests now
between two groups of Allies and one neutral power。 So that
while on the one hand the development of modern warfare of which
the Tank is the present symbol opens a prospect of limitless
senseless destruction； it opens on the other hand a prospect of
organised world control。 This Tank development must ultimately
bring the need of a real permanent settlement within the compass
of the meanest of diplomatic intelligences。 A peace that will
restore competitive armaments has now become a less desirable
prospect for everyone than a continuation of the war。 Things
were bad enough before； when the land forces were still in a
primitive phase of infantry； cavalry and artillery； and when the
only real race to develop monsters and destructors was for sea
power。 But the race for sea power before 1914 was mere child's
play to the breeding of engineering monstrosities for land
warfare that must now follow any indeterminate peace settlement。
I am no blind believer in the wisdom of mankind； but I cannot
believe that men are so insensate and headstrong as to miss the
plain omens of the present situation。
So that after all the cheerful amusement the sight of a Tank
causes may not be so very unreasonable。 These things may be no
more than one of those penetrating flashes of wit that will
sometimes light up and dispel the contentions of an angry man。
If they are not that； then they are the grimmest jest that ever
set men grinning。 Wait and see； if you do not believe me。
HOW PEOPLE THINK ABOUT THE WAR
I。 DO THEY REALLY THINK AT ALL？
All human affairs are mental affairs； the bright ideas of to…day
are the realities of to…morrow。 The real history of mankind is
the history of how ideas have arisen； how they have taken
possession of men's minds； how they have struggled； altered；
proliferated； decayed。 There is nothing in this war at all but a
conflict of ideas； traditions； and mental habits。 The German
Will clothed in conceptions of aggression and fortified by
cynical falsehood； struggles against the fundamental sanity of
the German mind and the confused protest of mankind。 So that the
most permanently important thing in the tragic process of this
war is the change of opinion that is going on。 What are people
making of it？ Is it producing any great common understandings；
any fruitful unanimities？
No doubt it is producing enormous quantities of cerebration； but
is it anything more than chaotic and futile cerebration？ We are
told all sorts of things in answer to that； things without a
scrap of evidence or probability to support them。 It is； we are
assured； turning people to religion； making them moral and
thoughtful。 It is also； we are assured with equal confidence；
turning them to despair and moral disaster。 It will be followed
by （1） a period of moral renascence； and （2） a debauch。 It is
going to make the workers （1） more and （2） less obedient and
industrious。 It is （1） inuring men to war and （2） filling them
with a passionate resolve never to suffer war again。 And so on。
I propose now to ask what is really happening in this matter？ How
is human opinion changing？ I have opinions of my own and they are
bound to colour my discussion。 The reader must allow for that；
and as far as possible I will remind him where necessary to make
his allowance。
Now first I would ask； is any really continuous and thorough
mental process going on at all about this war？ I mean； is there
any considerable number of people who are seeing it as a whole；
taking it in as a whole； trying to get a general idea of it from
which they can form directing conclusions for the future？ Is
there any considerable number of people even trying to do that？
At any rate let me point out first that there is quite an
enormous mass of people whoin spite of the fact that their
minds are concentrated on aspects of this war； who are at present
hearing； talking； experiencing little else than the warare
nevertheless neither doing nor trying to do anything that
deserves to be called thinking about it at all。 They may even be
suffering quite terribly by it。 But they are no more mastering
its causes； reasons； conditions； and the possibility of its
future prevention than a monkey that has been rescued in a
scorching condition from the burning of a house will have
mastered the problem of a fire。 It is just happening to and
about them。 It may； for anything they have learnt about it；
happen to them again。
A vast majority of people are being swamped by the spectacular
side of the business。 It was very largely my fear of being so
swamped myself that made me reluctant to go as a spectator to the
front。 I knew that my chances of being hit by a bullet were
infinitesimal； but I was extremely afraid of being hit by some
too vivid impression。 I was afraid that I might see some
horribly wounded man or some decayed dead body that would so scar
my memory and stamp such horror into me as to reduce me to a mere
useless； gibbering； stop…the…war…at…any…price pacifi