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autobiography and selected essays-第30章

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What are those inductions and deductions; and how have you got at

this hypothesis?  You have observed in the first place; that the

window is open; but by a train of reasoning involving many

inductions and deductions; you have probably arrived long before at

the general lawand a very good one it isthat windows do not

open of themselves; and you therefore conclude that something has

opened the window。  A second general law that you have arrived at

in the same way is; that tea…pots and spoons do not go out of a

window spontaneously; and you are satisfied that; as they are not

now where you left them; they have been removed。  In the third

place; you look at the marks on the windowsill; and the shoe…marks

outside; and you say that in all previous experience the former

kind of mark has never been produced by anything else but the hand

of a human being; and the same experience shows that no other

animal but man at present wears shoes with hob…nails in them such

as would produce the marks in the gravel。  I do not know; even if

we could discover any of those 〃missing links〃 that are talked

about; that they would help us to any other conclusion!  At any

rate the law which states our present experience is strong enough

for my present purpose。  You next reach the conclusion that; as

these kind '89' of marks have not been left by any other animal than

man; or are liable to be formed in any other way than a man's hand

and shoe; the marks in question have been formed by a man in that

way。  You have; further; a general law; founded on observation and

experience; and that; too; is; I am sorry to say; a very universal

and unimpeachable one;that some men are thieves; and you assume

at once from all these premissesand that is what constitutes your

hypothesisthat the man who made the marks outside and on the

window…sill; opened the window; got into the room; and stole your

tea…pot and spoons。  You have now arrived at a vera causa;you

have assumed a cause which; it is plain; is competent to produce

all the phenomena you have observed。  You can explain all these

phenomena only by the hypothesis of a thief。  But that is a

hypothetical conclusion; of the justice of which you have no

absolute proof at all; it is only rendered highly probable by a

series of inductive and deductive reasonings。



I suppose your first action; assuming that you are a man of

ordinary common sense; and that you have established this

hypothesis to your own satisfaction; will very likely be to go off

for the police; and set them on the track of the burglar; with the

view to the recovery of your property。  But just as you are

starting with this object; some person comes in; and on learning

what you are about; says; 〃My good friend; you are going on a great

deal too fast。  How do you know that the man who really made the

marks took the spoons?  It might have been a monkey that took them;

and the man may have merely looked in afterwards。〃  You would

probably reply; 〃Well; that is all very well; but you see it is

contrary to all experience of the way tea…pots and spoons are

abstracted; so that; at any rate; your hypothesis is less probable

than mine。〃  While you are talking the thing over in this way;

another friend arrives; one of the good kind of people that I was

talking of a little while ago。  And he might say; 〃Oh; my dear sir;

you are certainly going on a great deal too fast。  You are most

presumptuous。  You admit that all these occurrences took place when

you were fast asleep; at a time when you could not possibly have

known anything about what was taking place。  How do you know that

the laws of Nature are not suspended during the night?  It may be

that there has been some kind of supernatural interference in this

case。〃  In point of fact; he declares that your hypothesis is one

of which you cannot at all demonstrate the truth; and that you are

by no means sure that the laws of Nature are the same when you are

asleep as when you are awake。



Well; now; you cannot at the moment answer that kind of reasoning。

You feel that your worthy friend has you somewhat at a

disadvantage。  You will feel perfectly convinced in your own mind;

however; that you are quite right; and you say to him; 〃My good

friend; I can only be guided by the natural probabilities of the

case; and if you will be kind enough to stand aside and permit me

to pass; I will go and fetch the police。〃  Well; we will suppose

that your journey is successful; and that by good luck you meet

with a policeman; that eventually the burglar is found with your

property on his person; and the marks correspond to his hand and to

his boots。  Probably any jury would consider those facts a very

good experimental verification of your hypothesis; touching the

cause of the abnormal phenomena observed in your parlor; and would

act accordingly。



Now; in this supposititious case; I have taken phenomena of a very

common kind; in order that you might see what are the different

steps in an ordinary process of reasoning; if you will only take

the trouble to analyse it carefully。  All the operations I have

described; you will see; are involved in the mind of any man of

sense in leading him to a conclusion as to the course he should

take in order to make good a robbery and punish the offender。  I

say that you are led; in that case; to your conclusion by exactly

the same train of reasoning as that which a man of science pursues

when he is endeavouring to discover the origin and laws of the most

occult phenomena。  The process is; and always must be; the same;

and precisely the same mode of reasoning was employed by Newton '90'

and Laplace '91' in their endeavours to discover and define the causes

of the movements of the heavenly bodies; as you; with your own common

sense; would employ to detect a burglar。  The only difference is;

that the nature of the inquiry being more abstruse; every step has

to be most carefully watched; so that there may not be a single

crack or flaw in your hypothesis。  A flaw or crack in many of the

hypotheses of daily life may be of little or no moment as affecting

the general correctness of the conclusions at which we may arrive;

but; in a scientific inquiry; a fallacy; great or small; is always

of importance; and is sure to be in the long run constantly

productive of mischievous if not fatal results。



Do not allow yourselves to be misled by the common notion that an

hypothesis is untrustworthy simply because it is an hypothesis。  It

is often urged; in respect to some scientific conclusion; that;

after all; it is only an hypothesis。  But what more have we to

guide us in nine…tenths of the most important affairs of daily life

than hypotheses; and often very ill…based ones?  So that in

science; where the evidence of an hypothesis is subjected to the

most rigid examination; we may rightly pursue the same course。  You

may have hypotheses; and hypotheses。  A man may say; if he likes;

that the mo
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