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have to be； along with other changes； a development of the idea which
inspires the project of a League of Nations。 As time goes on； the
destructiveness of war grows greater and its profits grow less： the rational
argument against war acquires more and more force as the increasing
productivity of labor makes it possible to devote a greater and greater
proportion of the population to the work of mutual slaughter。 In quiet
times； or when a great war has just ended； men's moods are amenable to
the rational grounds in favor of peace； and it is possible to inaugurate
schemes designed to make wars less frequent。 Probably no civilized nation
would embark upon an aggressive war if it were fairly certain in advance
that the aggressor must be defeated。 This could be achieved if most great
nations came to regard the peace of the world as of such importance that
they would side against an aggressor even in a quarrel in which they had
no direct interest。 It is on this hope that the League of Nations is based。
But the League of Nations； like the abolition of private property； will
be by no means sufficient if it is not accompanied or quickly followed by
other reforms。 It is clear that such reforms； if they are to be effective； must
be international； the world must move as a whole in these matters； if it is
to move at all。 One of the most obvious necessities； if peace is to be secure；
is a measure of disarmament。 So long as the present vast armies and navies
exist； no system can prevent the risk of war。 But disarmament； if it is to
serve its purpose； must be simultaneous and by mutual agreement among
all the Great Powers。 And it is not likely to be successful so long as hatred
and suspicion rule between nations； for each nation will suspect its
neighbor of not carrying out the bargain fairly。 A different mental and
moral atmosphere from that to which we are accustomed in international
affairs will be necessary if agreements between nations are to succeed in
averting catastrophes。 If once such an atmosphere existed it might be
perpetuated and strengthened by wise institutions； but it cannot be
CREATED by institutions alone。 International co…operation requires
mutual good will； and good will； however it has arisen； is only to be
PRESERVED by co…operation。 The international future depends upon the
possibility of the initial creation of good will between nations。
It is in this sort of matter that revolutions are most useful。 If the
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Russian Revolution had been accompanied by a revolution in Germany；
the dramatic suddenness of the change might have shaken Europe； for the
moment； out of its habits of thought： the idea of fraternity might have
seemed； in the twinkling of an eye； to have entered the world of practical
politics； and no idea is so practical as the idea of the brotherhood of man；
if only people can be startled into believing in it。 If once the idea of
fraternity between nations were inaugurated with the faith and vigor
belonging to a new revolution； all the difficulties surrounding it would
melt away； for all of them are due to suspicion and the tyranny of ancient
prejudice。 Those who （as is common in the English…speaking world） reject
revolution as a method； and praise the gradual piecemeal development
which （we are told） constitutes solid progress； overlook the effect of
dramatic events in changing the mood and the beliefs of whole
populations。 A simultaneous revolution in Germany and Russia would no
doubt have had such an effect； and would have made the creation of a new
world possible here and now。
Dis aliter visum： the millennium is not for our time。 The great moment
has passed； and for ourselves it is again the distant hope that must inspire
us； not the immediate breathless looking for the deliverance。＇56＇ But we
have seen what might have been； and we know that great possibilities do
arise in times of crisis。 In some such sense as this； it may well be true that
the Socialist revolution is the road to universal peace； and that when it has
been traversed all the other conditions for the cessation of wars will grow
of themselves out of the changed mental and moral atmosphere。
＇56＇ This was written in March； 1918； almost the darkest moment of
the war。
There is a certain class of difficulties which surrounds the sober
idealist in all speculations about the not too distant future。 These are the
cases where the solution believed by most idealists to be universally
applicable is for some reason impossible； and is； at the same time；
objected to for base or interested motives by all upholders of existing
inequalities。 The case of Tropical Africa will illustrate what I mean。 It
would be difficult seriously to advocate the immediate introduction of
parliamentary government for the natives of this part of the world； even if
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it were accompanied by women's suffrage and proportional representation。
So far as I know； no one supposes the populations of these regions capable
of self… determination； except Mr。 Lloyd George。 There can be no doubt
that； whatever regime may be introduced in Europe； African negroes will
for a long time to come be governed and exploited by Europeans。 If the
European States became Socialistic； and refused； under a Quixotic impulse；
to enrich themselves at the expense of the defenseless inhabitants of Africa；
those inhabitants would not thereby gain； on the contrary； they would lose；
for they would be handed over to the tender mercies of individual traders；
operating with armies of reprobate bravos； and committing every atrocity
to which the civilized barbarian is prone。 The European governments
cannot divest themselves of responsibility in regard to Africa。 They must
govern there； and the best that can be hoped is that they should govern
with a minimum of cruelty and rapacity。 From the point of view of
preserving the peace of the world； the problem is to parce