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No book is entirely objective； so I do not in the least mind stating my
own reason for writing this one （which has taken time that I should have
liked to spend on other and very different things）。 Knowledge of this
reason will permit the reader to make allowances for such bias I have
been unable to avoid； and so； by judicious reading； to make my book
perhaps nearly as objective as I should myself wish it to be。
It has been said that when two armies face each other across a
battle front and engage in mutual slaughter； they may be considered as a
single army engaged in suicide。 Now it seems to me that when countries；
each one severally doing its best to arrest its private economic ruin； do
their utmost to accelerate the economic ruin of each other； we are
witnessing something very like the suicide of civilization itself。 There are
people in both camps who believe that armed and economic conflict
between revolutionary and non…revolutionary Europe； or if you like
between Capitalism and Communism； is inevitable。 These people； in both
camps； are doing their best to make it inevitable。 Sturdy pessimists； in
Moscow no less than in London and Paris； they go so far as to say 〃the
sooner the better；〃 and by all means in their power try to precipitate a
conflict。 Now the main effort in Russia to…day； the struggle which absorbs
the chief attention of all but the few Communist Churchills and
Communist Millerands who； blind to all else； demand an immediate
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THE CRISIS IN RUSSIA
pitched battle over the prostrate body of civilization； is directed to finding
a way for Russia herself out of the crisis； the severity of which can
hardly be realized by people who have not visited the country again and
again； and to bringing her as quickly as possible into a state in which she
can export her raw materials and import the manufactured goods of which
she stands in need。 I believe that this struggle is ours as well as Russia's；
though we to whom the threat is less imminent； are less desperately
engaged。 Victory or defeat in this struggle in Russia； or anywhere else on
the world's surface； is victory or defeat for every one。 The purpose of my
book is to make that clear。 For； bearing that in mind； I cannot but think
that every honest man； of whatever parity； who cares more for humanity
than for politics； must do his utmost to postpone the conflict which a few
extremists on each side of the barricades so fanatically desire。 If that
conflict is indeed inevitable； its consequences
will be less devastating to a Europe cured of her wounds than to a
Europe scarcely； even by the most hopeful； to be described as
convalescent。 But the conflict may not be inevitable after all。 No man
not purblind but sees that Communist Europe is changing no less than
Capitalist Europe。 If we succeed in postponing the struggle long enough；
we may well succeed in postponing it until the war…like on both sides
look in vain for the reasons of their bellicosity。
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THE CRISIS IN RUSSIA
THE SHORTAGE OF THINGS
Nothing can be more futile than to describe conditions in Russia as a
sort of divine punishment for revolution； or indeed to describe them at all
without emphasizing the fact that the crisis in Russia is part of the crisis in
Europe； and has been in the main brought about like the revolution itself；
by the same forces that have caused； for example； the crisis in Germany or
the crisis in Austria。
No country in Europe is capable of complete economic independence。
In spite of her huge variety of natural resources； the Russian organism
seemed in 1914 to have been built up on the generous assumption that
with Europe at least the country was to be permanently at peace； or at the
lost to engage in military squabbles which could be reckoned in months；
and would keep up the prestige of the autocracy without seriously
hampering imports and exports。 Almost every country in Europe； with the
exception of England； was better fitted to stand alone； was less completely
specialized in a single branch of production。 England； fortunately for
herself； was not isolated during the war； and will not become isolated
unless the development of the crisis abroad deprives her of her markets。
England produces practically no food； but great quantities of coal； steel
and manufactured goods。 Isolate her absolutely； and she will not only
starve； but will stop producing manufactured goods； steel and coal；
because those who usually produce these things will be getting nothing for
their labor except money which they will be unable to use to buy dinners；
because there will be no dinners to buy。 That supposititious case is a
precise parallel to what has happened in Russia。 Russia produced
practically no manufactured goods （70 per cent。 of her machinery she
received from abroad）； but great quantities of food。 The blockade
isolated her。 By the blockade I do not mean merely the childish stupidity
committed by ourselves； but the blockade； steadily increasing in strictness；
which began in August； 1914； and has been unnecessarily prolonged by
our stupidity。 The war； even while for Russia it was not nominally a
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THE CRISIS IN RUSSIA
blockade； was so actually。 The use of tonnage was perforce restricted to
the transport of the necessaries of war； and these were narrowly defined as
shells； guns and so on； things which do not tend to improve a country
economically； but rather the reverse。 The imports from Sweden through
Finland were no sort of make…weight for the loss of Poland and Germany。
The war meant that Russia's ordinary imports practically ceased。 It
meant a strai