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only with this remark； namely； that I think the probabilities are
very strong for them。
Some have proposed that such persons should breathe hard upon
warm water； and that they would leave an unusual scum upon it； or
upon several other things； especially such as are of a glutinous
substance and are apt to receive a scum and support it。
But from the whole I found that the nature of this contagion was
such that it was impossible to discover it at all； or to prevent its
spreading from one to another by any human skill。
Here was indeed one difficulty which I could never thoroughly get
over to this time； and which there is but one way of answering that I
know of； and it is this； viz。； the first person that died of the plague was
on December 20； or thereabouts； 1664； and in or about long Acre；
whence the first person had the infection was generally said to be from
a parcel of silks imported from Holland； and first opened in that house。
But after this we heard no more of any person dying of the plague；
or of the distemper being in that place； till the 9th of February； which
was about seven weeks after； and then one more was buried out of the
same house。 Then it was hushed； and we were perfectly easy as to the
public for a great while； for there were no more entered in the weekly
bill to be dead of the plague till the 22nd of April； when there was two
more buried； not out of the same house； but out of the same street；
and； as near as I can remember； it was out of the next house to the
first。 This was nine weeks asunder； and after this we had no more till
a fortnight； and then it broke out in several streets and spread every
way。 Now the question seems to lie thus： Where lay the seeds of the
infection all this while？ How came it to stop so long； and not stop any
longer？ Either the distemper did not come immediately by contagion
from body to body； or； if it did； then a body may be capable to
continue infected without the disease discovering itself many days；
nay； weeks together； even not a quarantine of days only； but
soixantine； not only forty days； but sixty days or longer。
It is true there was； as I observed at first； and is well known to many
yet living； a very cold winter and a long frost which continued three
months； and this； the doctors say； might check the infection； but then
the learned must allow me to say that if； according to their notion； the
disease was （as I may say） only frozen up； it would like a frozen river
have returned to its usual force and current when it thawed … whereas
the principal recess of this infection； which was from February to
April； was after the frost was broken and the weather mild and warm。
But there is another way of solving all this difficulty； which I think
my own remembrance of the thing will supply； and that is； the fact is
not granted … namely； that there died none in those long intervals； viz。；
from the 20th of December to the 9th of February； and from thence to
the 22nd of April。 The weekly bills are the only evidence on the other
side； and those bills were not of credit enough； at least with me； to
support an hypothesis or determine a question of such importance as
this； for it was our received opinion at that time； and I believe upon
very good grounds； that the fraud lay in the parish officers； searchers；
and persons appointed to give account of the dead； and what diseases
they died of； and as people were very loth at first to have the
neighbours believe their houses were infected； so they gave money to
procure； or otherwise procured； the dead persons to be returned as
dying of other distempers； and this I know was practised afterwards in
many places； I believe I might say in all places where the distemper
came； as will be seen by the vast increase of the numbers placed in the
weekly bills under other articles of diseases during the time of the
infection。 For example； in the months of July and August； when the
plague was coming on to its highest pitch； it was very ordinary to have
from a thousand to twelve hundred； nay； to almost fifteen hundred a
week of other distempers。 Not that the numbers of those distempers
were really increased to such a degree； but the great number of
families and houses where really the infection was； obtained the
favour to have their dead be returned of other distempers； to prevent
the shutting up their houses。 For example： …
Dead of other diseases beside the plague …
From the 18th July to the 25th 942
〃 25th July 〃 1st August 1004
〃 1st August 〃 8th 1213
〃 8th 〃 15th 1439
〃 15th 〃 22nd 1331
〃 22nd 〃 29th 1394
〃 29th 〃 5th September 1264
〃 5th September to the 12th 1056
〃 12th 〃 19th 1132
〃 19th 〃 26th 927
Now it was not doubted but the greatest part of these； or a great part
of them； were dead of the plague； but the officers were prevailed with
to return them as above； and the numbers of some particular articles
of distempers discovered is as follows： …
Aug。 Aug。 Aug。 Aug。 Aug。 Sept。 Sept。 Sept。
1 8 15 22 29 5 12 19
to 8 to 15 to 22 to 29 to Sept。5 to 12 to 19 to 26
Fever 314 353 348 383 364 332 309 268
Spotted 174 190 166 165 157 97 101 65
Fever
Surfeit 85 87 74 99 68 45 49 36
Teeth 90 113 111 133 138 128 121 112
…
663 743 699 780 727 602 580 481
There were several other articles which bore a proportion to these；
and which； it is easy to perceive； were increased on the same account；
as aged； consumptions； vomitings； imposthumes； gripes； and the like；
many of which were not doubted to be infected people； but as it was
of the utmost consequence to families not to be known to be infected；
if it was possible to avoid it； so they took all the measures they could
to have it not believed； and if any died in their houses； to get them
returned to the examiners； and by the searchers； as having died of
other distempers。
This； I say； will account for the long interval which； as I have said；
was between the dying of the first persons that were returned in the
bill to be dead of the plague and the time when the distemper spread
openly and could not be concealed。
Besides； the weekly bills themselves at that time evidently discover
the truth； for； while there was no mention of the plague； and no
increase after it had been mentione