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president of Johns Hopkins； told me this story in the summer of 2004： 〃I am sitting
in a medical meeting in Vail and the ＇doctor＇ giving a lecture quotes a study from
Johns Hopkins University。 And the guy speaking is touting a new approach to treating
prostate cancer that went against the grain of the current surgical method。 It was
a minimally invasive approach to prostate cancer。 So he quotes a study by Dr。 Patrick
Walsh； who had developed the state…of…the…art standard of care for prostate surgery。
This guy who is speaking proposes an alternate method…which was controversial…but
he quotes from Walsh's Hopkins study in a way that supported his approach。 When he
said that； I said to myself； That doesn't sound like Dr。 Walsh's study。' So I had
a PDA ＇personal digital assistant＇； and I immediately went online ＇wirelessly＇ and
got into the Johns Hopkins portal and into Medline and did a search right while I
was sitting there。 Up come all the Walsh abstracts。 I toggled on one and read it；
and it was not at all what the guy was saying it was。 So I raised my hand during the
Q and A and read two lines from the abstract； and the guy just turned beet red。〃
The digitization and storage of all the Johns Hopkins faculty research in recent years
made it possible for Brody to search it instantly and virtually without giving it
a second thought。 The advances in wireless technology made it possible for him to
do that search from anywhere with any device。 And his handheld personal computer
enabled him to do that search personally…by himself； just for himself。
What are the steroids that made all this possible？
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One simple way to think about computing； at any scale； is that it is comprised of
three things： computational capability； storage capability； and input/output
capability…the speed by which information is drawn in and out of the computer/storage
complexes。 And all of these have been steadily increasing since the days of the first
bulky mainframes。 This mutually reinforcing progress constitutes a significant
steroid。 As a result of it； year after year we have been able to digitize； shape；
crunch； and transmit more words； music； data； and entertainment than ever before。
For instance； MIPS stands for 〃millions of instructions per second；〃 and it is one
measure of the computational capability of a computer's microchips。 In 1971； the Intel
4004 microprocessor produced 。06 MIPS； or 60；000 instructions per second。 Today's
Intel Pentium 4 Extreme Edition has a theoretical maximum of 10。8 billion instructions
per second。 In 1971； the Intel 4004 microprocessor contained 2；300 transistors。
Today's Itanium 2 packs 410 million transistors。 Meanwhile； inputting and outputting
data have leaped ahead at a staggering rate。 At the speeds that disk drives operated
back in the early days of 286 and 386 chips； it would have taken about a minute to
download a single photo from my latest digital camera。 Today I can do that in less
than a second on a USB 2。0 disk drive and a Pentium processor。 The amount of stuff
you can now store to input and output 〃is off the charts； thanks to the steady advances
in storage devices；〃 said Craig Mundie； Microsoft's chief technology officer。
〃Storage is growing exponentially； and this is really as much a factor in the
revolution as anything else。〃 It's what is allowing all forms of content to become
digital and to some extent portable。 It is also becoming cheap enough that you can
put massive amounts on even the personal devices people carry around with them。 Five
years ago； no one would have believed that you would be able to sell iPods with 40
gigabytes ofstorage； capable of holding thousands of songs； for prices that teenagers
could afford。 Now it's seen as ho…hum。 And when it comes to moving all these bits
around； the computing world has been turbocharged。 Advances in fiber optics will soon
allow a single fiber to carry 1 terabit per second。 With 48 fibers in a cable； that's
48 terabits per second。 Henry Schacht； the former CEO of Lucent； which specialized
in this technology； pointed out that with that much capacity； you could 〃transmit
all the
printed material in the world in minutes in a single cable。 This means unlimited
transmitting capacity at zero incremental cost。〃 Even though the speeds that Schacht
was talking about apply only to the backbone of the fiber network； and not that last
mile into your house and into your computer； we are still talking about a quantum
leap forward。
In The Lexus and the Olive Tree； I wrote about a 1999 Qwest commercial showing a
businessman； tired and dusty； checking in to a roadside motel inthe middle of nowhere。
He asks the bored…looking desk clerk whether they have room service and other
amenities。 She says yes。 Then he asks her whether entertainment is available on his
room television； and the clerk answers in a what…do…you…think…you…idiot monotone；
〃All rooms have every movie ever made in every language； anytime； day or night。〃 I
wrote about that back then as an example of what happens when you get connected to
the Internet。 Today it is an example of how much you can now get disconnected from
the Internet； because in the next few years； as storage continues to advance and become
more and more miniaturized； you will be able to buy enough storage to carry many of
those movies around in your pocket。
Then add another hardware steroid to the mix： file sharing。 It started with Napster
paving the way for two of us to share songs stored on each other's computers。 〃At
its peak；〃 according to Howstuffworks。com； 〃Napster was perhaps the most popular
Website ever created。 In less than a year； it went from zero to 60 million visitors
per month。 Then it was shut down by a court order because of copyright violations；
and wouldn't re…launch until 2003 as a legal music…download site。 The original Napster
became so popular so quickly because it offered a unique product…free music that you
could obtain nearly effortlessly from a gigantic database。〃 That database was
actually a file…sharing architecture by which Napster facilitated a connection
between my computer and yours so that we could swap music files。 The original Napster
is dead； but file…sharing technologyis still around and is getting more sophisticated
every day； greatly enhancing collaboration。
Finally； add one last hardware steroid that brings these technology breakthroughs
together for consumers： the steady breakthrough in multipurpose devices…ever smaller
and more powerful laptops； cell phones；
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you could practically feel the breath of the other parties to the videocon…ference；
when in fact half of us were in Santa Barbara and half were five hundred miles away。
Because DreamWorks is doing film and animation work all over the world； it felt that
it had to have a videoconferencing solution where its creative people could really
communicate all their thoughts； facial expressions； feelings； ire； enthusiasm； and
raised eyebrows。 HP's chief strategy and technology officer； Shane Robison； told me
that HP plans to have these videoconferencing suites for sa