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on the path and on achieving your dreams。 When you have no pathway； you tend to focus
on your wrath and on nursing your memories。
India only twenty years ago； before the triple convergence； was known as a country
of snake charmers； poor people； and Mother Teresa。 Today its image has been
recalibrated。 Now it is also seen as a country of brainy people and computer wizards。
Atul Vashistha； CEO of the outsourcing consulting firm NeoIT； often appears in the
American media to defend outsourcing。 He told me this story： 〃One day I had a problem
with my HP printer…the printing was very slow。 I was trying to figure out the problem。
So I call HP tech support。 This guy answers and takes all my personal information
down。 From his voice it is clear he is somewhere in India。 So I start asking where
he is and how the weather is。 We're having a nice chat。 So after he is helping me
for about ten or fifteen minutes he says； 'Sir； do you mind if I say something to
you？' I said； 'Sure。' I figured he was going to tell me something else I was doing
wrong with my computer and was trying to be polite about it。 And instead he says；
'Sir； I was very proud to hear you on Voice of America。 You did a good job 。 。 。'
I had just been on a VOA show about the backlash against
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globalization and outsourcing。 I was one of three invited guests。 There was a union
official； an economist； and myself。 I defended outsourcing and this guy heard it。〃
Remember： In the flat world you don't get just your humiliation dished out to you
fiber…optically。 You also get your pride dished out to you fiber…optically。 An Indian
help…line operator suddenly knows； in real time； all about how one of his compatriots
is representing India half a world away； and it makes him feel better about himself。
The French Revolution； the American Revolution； the Indian democracy； and even eBay
are all based on social contracts whose dominant feature is that authority comes from
the bottom up； and people can and do feel self…empowered to improve their lot。 People
living in such contexts tend to spend their time focusing on what to do next； not
on whom to blame next。
The Curse of Oil
Nothing has contributed more to retarding the emergence of a democratic context in
places like Venezuela； Nigeria； Saudi Arabia； and Iran than the curse of oil。 As long
as the monarchs and dictators who run these oil states can get rich by drilling their
natural resources…as opposed to drilling the natural talents and energy of their
people…they can stay in office forever。 They can use oil money to monopolize all the
instruments of power…army； police； and intelligence…and never have to introduce real
transparency or power sharing。 All they have to do is capture and hold the oil tap。
They never have to tax their people； so the relationship between ruler and ruled is
highly distorted。 Without taxation； there is no representation。 The rulers don't
really have to pay attention to the people or explain how they are spending their
money…because they have not raised that money through taxes。 That is why countries
focused on tapping their oil wells always have weak or nonexistent institutions。
Countries focused on tapping their people have to focus on developing real
institutions； property rights； rule of law； independent courts； modern
education； foreign trade； foreign investment； freedom of thought； and scientific
enquiry to get the most out of their men and women。 In an essay in Foreign Affairs
called 〃Saving Iraq from Its Oil〃 （July…August 2004）； development economists Nancy
Birdsall and Arvind Subramanian point out that 〃34 less…developed countries now boast
significant oil and natural gas resources that constitute at least 30 percent of their
total export revenue。 Despite their riches； however； 12 of these countries' annual
per capita income remains below 1；500 。 。 。 Moreover； two…thirds of the 34 countries
are not democratic； and of those that are； only three score in the top half of Freedom
House's world rankings of political freedom。〃
In other words； imagination is also a product of necessity…when the context you are
living in simply does not allow you to indulgein certain escapist or radical fantasies；
you don't。 Look where the most creative innovation is happening in the Arab…Muslim
world today。 It is in the places with little or no oil。 As I noted earlier； Bahrain
was one of the first Arab Gulf states to discover oil and was the first Arab Gulf
state to run out of oil。 And today it is the first Arab Gulf state to develop
comprehensive labor reform for developing the skills of its own workers； the first
to sign a free…trade agreement with the United States； and the first to hold a free
and fair election； in which women could both run and vote。 And which countries in
that same region are paralyzed or actually rolling back reforms？ Saudi Arabia and
Iran； which are awash in oil money。 On December 9； 2004； at a time when crude oil
prices had soared to near 50 a barrel； The Economist did a special report from Iran；
in which it noted； 〃Without oil at its present sky…high price； Iran's economy would
be in wretched straits。 Oil provides about half the government's revenue and at least
80％ of export earnings。 But； once again under the influence of zealots in parliament；
the oil cash is being spent on boosting wasteful subsidies rather than on much…needed
development and new technology。〃
It is worthy of note that Jordan began upgrading its education system and privatizing；
modernizing； and deregulating its economy starting in 1989…precisely when oil prices
were way down and it could no longer rely on handouts from the Gulf oil states。 In
1999； when Jordan signed
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its free…trade agreement with the United States； its exports to America totaled 13
million。 In 2004； Jordan exported over 1 billion of goods to America…things
Jordanians made with their hands。 The Jordanian government has also installed
computers and broadband Internet in every school。 Most important； in 2004； Jordan
announced a reform of its education requirements for mosque prayer leaders。
Traditionally； high school students in Jordan took an exam for college entrance； and
those who did the best became doctors and engineers。 Those who did the worst became
mosque preachers。 In 2004； Jordan decided to gradually phase in a new system。
Henceforth； to become a mosque prayer leader； a young man will first have to get a
B。A。 in some other subject； and can study Islamic law only as a graduate degree…in
order to encourage more young men of talent to go into the clergy and weed out those
who were just 〃failing〃 into it。 That is an important change in context that should
pay dividends over time in the narratives that young Jordanians are nurtured upon
in their mosques。 〃We had to go through a crisis to accept the need for reform；〃 said
Jordan's minister of planning； Bassem Awadallah。
There is no mother of invention like necessity； and only when falling oil prices force
the leaders in the Middle East to change their contexts will they reform。 People don't
change when you tell the