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of our big American clients send me an e…mail saying； 1 am now spending a lot of time
looking for alternative sources to India。 I don't think you want me doing that； and
I don't want to be doing it。' I immediately forwarded his message to the Indian
ambassador in Washington and told him to get it to the right person。〃 Paul would not
tell me what company it was； but I have confirmed through diplomatic sources that
it was United Technologies。 And plenty of others； like American Express and General
Electric； with back rooms in Bangalore； had to have been equally worried。
For many global companies； 〃the main heart of their business is now supported here；〃
said N。 Krishnakumar； president of MindTree； another leading Indian knowledge
outsourcing firm based in Bangalore。 〃It can cause chaos if there is a disruption。〃
While not trying to meddle in foreign affairs； he added； 〃What we explained to our
government； through the Confederation of Indian Industry； is that providing a stable；
predictable operating environment is now the key to India's development。〃 This was
a real education for India's elderly leaders in New Delhi； who had not fully absorbed
how critical India had become to the world's knowledge supply chain。 When you are
managing vital backroom operations for American Express or General Electric or Avis；
or are responsible for tracing all the lost luggage on British Airways or Delta； you
cannot take a month； a week； or even aday off for war without causing major disruptions
for those companies。 Once those companies have made a commitment to outsource business
operations or research to India； they expect it to stay there。 That is a major
commitment。 And if geopolitics
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causes a serious disruption； they will leave； and they will not come back very easily。
When you lose this kind of service trade； you can lose it for good。
〃What ends up happening in the flat world you described；〃 explained Paul； 〃is that
you have only one opportunity to make it right if something ＇goes＇ wrong。 Because
the disadvantage of being in a flat world is that despite all the nice engagements
and stuff and the exit barriers that you have； every customer has multiple options；
and so the sense of responsibility you have is not just out of a desire to do good
by your customers； but also a desire for self…preservation。〃
The Indian government got the message。 Was India's central place in the world's
services supply chain the only factor in getting Prime Minister Vajpayee to tone down
his rhetoric and step back from the brink？ Of course not。 There were other factors；
to be sure…most notably the deterrent effect of Pakistan's own nuclear arsenal。 But
clearly； India's role in global services was an important additional source of
restraint on its behavior； and it was taken into account by New Delhi。 〃I think it
sobered a lot of people；〃 said Jerry Rao； who； as noted earlier； heads the Indian
high…tech trade association。 〃We engaged very seriously； and we tried to make the
point that this was very bad for Indian business。 It was very bad for the Indian
economy 。 。 。 ＇Many people＇ didn't realize till then how suddenly we had become
integrated into the rest of the world。 We are now partners in a twenty…four by seven
by three…sixty…five supply chain。〃
Vivek Kulkami； then information technology secretary for Bangalore's regional
government； told me back in 2002； 〃We don't get involved in politics； but we did bring
to the government's attention the problems the Indian IT industry might face if there
were a war。〃 And this was an altogether new factor for New Delhi to take into
consideration。 〃Ten years ago； ＇a lobby of IT ministers from different Indian states＇
never existed；〃 said Kulkarni。 Now it is one of the most important business lobbies
in India and a coalition that no Indian government can ignore。
〃With all due respect； the McDonald's ＇shutting＇ down doesn't hurt anything；〃 said
Vivek Paul； 〃but if Wipro had to shut down we would af…
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feet the day…to…day operations of many； many companies。〃 No one would answer the
phones in call centers。 Many e…commerce sites that are supported from Bangalore would
shut down。 Many major companies that rely on India to maintain their key computer
applications or handle their human resources departments or billings would seize up。
And these companies did not want to find alternatives； said Paul。 Switching is very
difficult； because taking over mission…critical day…to…day backroom operations of
a global company takes a great deal of training and experience。 It's not like opening
a fast…food restaurant。 That was why； said Paul； Wipro's clients were telling him；
〃'I have made an investment in you。 I need you to be very responsible with the trust
I have reposed in you。' And I think that created an enormous amount of back pressure
on us that said we have to act in a responsible fashion 。。。 All of a sudden it became
even clearer that there's more to gain by economic gains than by geopolitical gains。
＇We had more to gain from building＇ a vibrant； richer middle class able to create
an export industry than we possibly could by having an ego…satisfying war with
Pakistan。〃 The Indian government also looked around and realized that the vast
majority of India's billion people were saying； 〃I want a better future； not more
territory。〃 Over and over again； when I asked young Indians working at call centers
how they felt about Kashmir or a war with Pakistan； they waved me off with the same
answer： 〃We have better things to do。〃 And they do。 America needs to keep this in
mind as it weighs its overall approach to outsourcing。 I would never advocate shipping
some American's job overseas just so it will keep Indians and Pakistanis at peace
with each other。 But I would say that to the extent that this process happens； driven
by its own internal economic logic； it will have a net positive geopolitical effect。
It will absolutely make the world safer for American kids。
Each of the Indian business leaders I interviewed noted that in the event of some
outrageous act of terrorism or aggression from Pakistan； India would do whatever it
takes to defend itself； and they would be the first to support that…the Dell Theory
be damned。 Sometimes war is unavoidable。 It is imposed on you by the reckless behavior
of others； and you have to just pay the price。 But the more India and； one hopes；
soon Pakistan get enmeshed in global service supply chains； the greater disin
centive they have to fight anything but a border skirmish or a war of words。
The example of the 2002 India…Pakistan nuclear crisis at least gives us some hope。
That cease…fire was brought to us not by General Powell but by General Electric。
We bring good things to life。
Infosys Versus al…Qaeda
Unfortunately； even GE can do only so much。 Because； alas； a new source for
geopolitical instability has emerged only in recent years； for which even the updated
Dell Theory can provide no restraint。 It is the emergence of mutant global supply
chains …that is； nonstate actors； be they criminals or terrorists； who learn to us