按键盘上方向键 ← 或 → 可快速上下翻页，按键盘上的 Enter 键可回到本书目录页，按键盘上方向键 ↑ 可回到本页顶部！
————未阅读完？加入书签已便下次继续阅读！
and； increasingly； software supply chains。 The vast majority of computer components
for every major company comes from coastal China； Taiwan； and East Asia。 In addition；
Taiwan alone has more than 100 billion in investments in mainland China today； and
Taiwanese experts run many of the cutting…edge Chinese high…tech manufacturing
companies。
It is no wonder that Craig Addison； the former editor of Electronic Business Asia
magazine； wrote an essay for the International Herald Tribune （September 29； 2000）；
headlined 〃A 'Silicon Shield' Protects Taiwan from China。〃 He argued that
〃Silicon…based products； such as computers and networking systems； form the basis
of the digital economies in the United States； Japan and other developed nations。
In the past decade； Taiwan has become the third…largest information technology
hardware producer after the United States and Japan。 Military aggression by China
against Taiwan would cut off a large portion of the world's supply of these
products 。 。 。 Such a development would wipe trillions of dollars off the market value
of technology companies listed in the United States； Japan and Europe。〃 Even if
China's leaders； like former president Jiang Zemin； who was once minister of
electronics； lose sight of how integrated China and Taiwan are in the world's computer
supply chain； they need only ask their kids for an update。 Jiang Zemin's son； Jiang
Mianheng； wrote Addison； 〃is a partner in a wafer fabrication project in Shanghai
with Winston Wang of Taiwan's Grace T。H。W。 Group。〃 And it is not just Taiwanese。
Hundreds of big American tech companies now have R & D operations in China； a war
that disrupted them could
424
lead not only to the companies moving their plants elsewhere but also to a significant
loss of R & D investment in China； which the Beijing government has been betting on
to advance its development。 Such a war could also； depending on how it started； trigger
a widespread American boycott of Chinese goods…if China were to snuff out the
Taiwanese democracy…which would lead to serious economic turmoil inside China。
The Dell Theory had its first real test in December 2004； when Taiwan held
parliamentary elections。 President Chen Shui…bian's pro…independence Democratic
Progressive Party was expected to win the legislative runoff over the main opposition
Nationalist Party； which favored closer ties with Beijing。 Chen framed the election
as a popular referendum on hisproposal to write anew constitution that would formally
enshrine Taiwan's independence； ending the purposely ambiguous status quo。 Had Chen
won and moved ahead on his agenda to make Taiwan its own motherland； as opposed to
maintaining the status quo fiction that it is a province of the mainland； it could
have led to a Chinese military assault on Taiwan。 Everyone in the region was holding
his or her breath。 And what happened？ Motherboards won over motherland。 A majority
of Taiwanese voted against the pro…independence governing party legislative
candidates； ensuring that the DPP would not have a majority in parliament。 I believe
the message Taiwanese voters were sending was not that they never want Taiwan to be
independent。 It was that they do not want to upset the status quo right now； which
has been so beneficial to so many Taiwanese。 The voters seemed to understand clearly
how interwoven they had become with the mainland； and they wisely opted to maintain
their de facto independence rather than force de jure independence； which might have
triggered a Chinese invasion and a very uncertain future。
Warning： What I said when I put forth the McDonald's theory； I would repeat even more
strenuously with the Dell Theory： It does not make wars obsolete。 And it does not
guarantee that governments will not engage in wars of choice； even governments that
are part of major supply chains。 To suggest so would be naive。 It guarantees only
that governments whose countries are enmeshed in global supply chains will have
425
to think three times； not just twice； about engaging in anything but a war of
self…defense。 And if they choose to go to war anyway； the price they will pay will
be ten times higher than it was a decade ago and probably ten times higher than whatever
the leaders of that country think。 It is one thing to lose your McDonald's。 It's quite
another to fight a war that costs you your place in a twenty…first…century supply
chain that may not come back around for a long time。
While the biggest test case of the Dell Theory is China versus Taiwan； the fact is
that the Dell Theory has already proved itself to some degree in the case of India
and Pakistan； the context in which I first started to think about it。 I happened to
be in India in 2002； when its just…in…time services supply chains ran into some very
old…time geopolitics…and the supply chain won。 In the case of India and Pakistan；
the Dell Theory was working on only one party…India…but it still had a major impact。
India is to the world's knowledge and service supply chain what China and Taiwan are
to the manufacturing ones。 By now readers ofthis book know all thehighlights： General
Electric's biggest research center outside the United States is in Bangalore； with
seventeen hundred Indian engineers； designers； and scientists。 The brain chips for
many brand…name cell phones are designed in Bangalore。 Renting a car from Avis online？
It's managed in Bangalore。 Tracing your lost luggage on Delta or British Airways is
done from Bangalore； and the backroom accounting and computer maintenance for scores
of global firms are done from Bangalore； Mumbai； Chennai； and other major Indian
cities。 Here's what happened： On May 31； 2002； State Department spokesman Richard
Boucher issued a travel advisory saying； 〃We urge American citizens currently in India
to depart the country；〃 because the prospect of a nuclear exchange with Pakistan was
becoming very real。 Both nations were massing troops on their borders； intelligence
reports were suggesting that they both might be dusting off their nuclear warheads；
and CNN was flashing images of people flooding out of India。 The global American firms
that had moved their back rooms and R & D operations to Bangalore were deeply unnerved。
〃I was actually surfing on the Web； and I saw a travel advisory come up on India on
a Friday evening/' said Vivek Paul； president of Wipro； which manages backroom
operations from India of many American multinationals。 〃As soon as I saw that； I said；
'Oh my gosh； every customer that we have is going to have a million questions on this。'
It was the Friday before a long weekend； so over the weekend we at Wipro developed
a fail…safe business continuity plan for all of our customers。〃 While Wipro's
customers were pleased to see how on top of things the company was； many of them were
nevertheless rattled。 This was not in the plan when they decided to outsource
mission…critical research and operations to India。 Said Paul； 〃I had a CIO from one
of our big American clients send me an e…mail saying； 1 am now spending a lot of time
looking for alternativ