动物精神-第43章

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italism　and　why　these　benefits　have　costs。　This　intellectual　failure　has　left　capitalism　vulnerable　to　opponents　and　to　ignorance　within　the　system。Capitalism　lost　much　of　its　standing　in　the　interwar　period；　when　many　countries　in　western　continental　Europe　shifted　to　corporatist　systems。　This　was　a　low　point　in　the　public’s　grasp　of　political　economy。　In　the　end；　the　promises　of　greater　prosperity　and　lesser　swings　could　not　be　delivered。　The　nations　that　kept　capitalism　while　making　reforms；　some　good　and　others　maybe　not；　ultimately　performed　well　again　–　until　now。　Those　that　broke　from　capitalism　were　less　innovative。　After　the　disturbances　of　the　1970s；　they　saw　unemployment　rise　far　more　than　the　capitalist　nations　did。　They　were　worse　on　economic　inclusion　too。Now　capitalism　is　in　the　midst　of　its　second　crisis。　An　explanation　offered　is　that　the　bankers；　whatever　they　knew　about　capitalism；　knew　that　to　keep　their　jobs　and　their　bonuses　they　would　have　to　borrow　more　and　more　to　lend　more　and　more；　in　order　to　meet　profit　targets　and　hold　up　share　prices。　The　implication　was　that　the　crisis　flowed　from　a　failure　of　corporate　governance　to　curb　bonuses　and　of　regulation　to　rein　in　leveraging　of　bank　capital　to　levels　that　made　the　banks　vulnerable　to　a　break　in　housing　prices。But　why　did　big　shareholders　not　move　to　stop　over…leveraging　before　it　reached　dangerous　levels？　Why　did　legislators　not　demand　regulatory　intervention？　The　answer；　I　believe；　is　that　they　had　no　sense　of　the　existing　Knightian　uncertainty。　So　they　had　no　sense　of　the　possibility　of　a　huge　break　in　housing　prices　and　no　sense　of　the　fundamental　inapplicability　of　the　risk　management　models　used　in　the　banks。　“Risk”　came　to　mean　volatility　over　some　recent　past。　The　volatility　of　the　price　as　it　vibrates　around　some　path　was　considered　but　not　the　uncertainty　of　the　path　itself：　the　risk　that　it　would　shift　down。　The　banks’　chief　executives；　too；　had　little　grasp　of　uncertainty。　Some　had　the　instinct　to　buy　insurance　but　did　not　see　the　uncertainty　of　the　insurer’s　solvency。Much　is　dysfunctional　in　the　US　and　the　UK：　a　financial　sector　that　turned　away　from　the　business　sector；　then　caused　its　self…destruction；　and　a　business　sector　beset　by　short…termism。　If　we　still　have　our　humanist　values　we　will　try　to　restructure　these　sectors　to　make　capitalism　work　well　again　–　to　guard　better　against　reckless　disregard　of　uncertainty　in　the　financial　sector　while　reviving　innovativeness　in　business。　We　will　not　close　the　door　on　systems　that　gave　growing　numbers　rewarding　lives。The　writer　is　director　of　the　Center　on　Capitalism　and　Society；　Columbia　University；　and　winner　of　the　2006　Nobel　Prize　in　Economics。　To　join　the　debate　go　to　ft/capitalismblog