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股票期货突破技术分析(英文原版)-第13章

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 a weekly or monthly close outside the previousngestion zone to conclude that there is。indeed a new trend。 

4。 
After plotting the candles; move on to the clouds。 Clouds。are defined by an upper edge and a lower one; both called Span; which; as。in English; means。length of time。 Leading Span 1 also known as。Senkou Span A; is。the sum of today's。values。of the moving averages。divided by two; plotted twenty…six days。ahead of the last plete candle。 Leading Span 2; or Senkou Span B; is。the highest price of the last fifty…two days; minus。the lowest price of that period; divided by two and again plotted twenty…six days。ahead of the last plete days。trading。 The space between these two is。shaded; or cross…hatched as。in the figures。in this。chapter; but may be rendered in any color or bination of colors。your heart desires。 Even though the upper edge and the lower edge have similar names; they are constructed very differently。 Like the Conversion Line and the Base Line。 Leading Span 1 and Leading Span 2 work。together。 Span 1 is。faster; providing the arias; whereas。the slower Span 2 provides。die underlying beat。 When these two march in the same direction; the market is。clearly trending: bullish when Span 1 is。above Span 2 or bearish when Span 2 is。above Span 1。 

5。 
The final line to plot is。the Lagging Span; called Chikou Span in Japanese。 In the figures。in this。chapter; the lagging Span is。the thickest; darkest line。 It is。last nights。closing price; not the current price; plotted twenty…six days。ago。 


Lagging Span is a line chart that has been displaced back in time; hence the name。 Some puters。have trouble with this。one and plot the current price twenty…five days ago。 If this。is。the case; the line will bob up and down during the day as。the current price changes。 This。is irritating; but not an enormous problem。 However; the reason for using the closing price is。sound。 As I pointed out earlier; today’s。price action can take all sorts。of shapes during the day。 The goal is。to work。with what it eventually ended up looking like。 Learn to be patient。 

These lines。identify support; resistance; and the trend。 Ichimoku Kinko Hyo is。a system designed for trending markets。and is。not useful for anything that is。crawling across。the page。 Because it relies。on daily candlestick charts; day traders。and very。active market…makers。won't find it too valuable。 On the other end of the spectrum; it is。a little too short term for pension funds。looking to invest for very long time horizons。 I have found that this。last problem can be overe by using weekly candles; and that these often work。exceeding well。 Monthly charts。are not much good because Leading Span B uses。data of up to fifty…two prior time periods。 Fifty…two months。is。more than four years; meaning that the slower span hardly changes。(and therefore the cloud does。not move much) and may be a million miles。from current prices。 My Japanese colleagues。bend the rules。of this。system by working with hourly and five…minute charts。 They have been trying it with weekly。ones。for a long time。 Feel free to fiddle and experiment。 
To recap quickly; the six most useful elements are: 
。 
the candles themselves; individually and in groups and patterns。

。 
two moving averages; nine…day (Conversion Line) and twenty…six…day (Base Line) simple ones。

。 
two Leading Spans; which make up the cloud itself 
。 one Lagging Span 





Working With the Elements 
The candles; as。mentioned; are used in exactly the same way as。bar charts。 First look。for clusters。of support and resistance; patterns; congestion /ones; and trendlines。 Then look for reversal candles; which usually appear either singly (easy to spot because they are often the biggest) or in clusters。of twos。and threes。 Gaps。in the price action; especially if associated with a reversal candle; are also important; rather like Western 〃island reversals。〃 
Use the moving averages。in the usual way。 Take a long position when the nine…day one is。higher than the longer average; switch to a short position when the nine…day drops below the twenty…six…day average。 The Base Line is。a sort of drumbeat; keeping the pace; while the Conversion Line forces。you to act; shifting between long and short positions。 This is。not necessarily noise; but worth keeping in mind when deciding whether the Conversion Line's。moves。are significant。 This。method of trading keeps。you in the market 100 percent of the time; not necessarily a good idea (vast losses。pile up in sideways。markets) and perhaps not even an achievable one — for example; if you cannot borrow shares。that you have sold short。 The averages。themselves。are used as。support and resistance levels。for today's。price action。 In a bull trend the averages。move northeast more slowly than the candles。 If there was。a small downward correction; the nine…day average would be the first support level; the twenty…six…day。average the next。 The value of the instrument might drop below the nine…day one and hold somewhere between there and the lower average。 At that point; scrutinize the candles。themselves。for signs。of a reversal。 At this stage the averages。should not cross。 If they do; at least cut the position。 And never forget: moving averages。work。well only in trending markets。 
The edges。of the cloud also act as。support and resistance; both for trending and sideways。markets。 In an ideal bull market; leading Span 1 will be below the nine…day and twenty…six…day averages。and above the Leading Span 2。 These support you all the way。up and everything is。plain sailing。 The opposite happens。in a perfect bear market: all the lines。feel top…heavy and grind the market down。 This。is。a series。of four lines。which should limit any collective move。 Picture them as。two pairs。 In the first pair; the longer moving average is。more important than the short one。 In the second pair; Span 2 is。of critical importance; whereas。Span 1 may or may not stem the move。 I think。of this。as。an advance force versus。rearguard action。 If prices。move through leading Span 2; then any position should be cut and probably reversed。 If this。one goes; watch out! As。always; at support and resistance levels。watch for reversal…type candles。which will hint that the level will hold。 These often break。through Span 2 intraday and then close back。inside the cloud; forming a good reversal pattern。 
The most interesting thing about the clouds is。that they are plotted twenty…six days。ahead of today's。prices。 They therefore indicate where support and resistance levels。will lie over the ing month。 The thicker the cloud; the more likely it will contain price action。 If it is。thin; and if the lines。cross。from bull to bear; then the odds。increase that the trend will change。 So looking forward; the cloud gives you some idea whether to consider reversing tactics。 In this。situation; price action will be nonexistent。 If coupled with a reversal candle at this。point; whether it confirms。that the trend will hold or hints。that it will change; extra attention to detail and willingness。to go with the move is。warranted。 The distance between the current price and the cloud is not considered important。 It does not indicate whether the trend is overstretched; as。the relative strength index (RSI) o
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