按键盘上方向键 ← 或 → 可快速上下翻页，按键盘上的 Enter 键可回到本书目录页，按键盘上方向键 ↑ 可回到本页顶部！
————未阅读完？加入书签已便下次继续阅读！
ent started trading。 In over…the…counter markets。it is。a lot more difficult； as。it is。with markets。that trade twenty…four hours。a day。 I tend to use the Wellington （New Zealand）/Tokyo opening prices。and the New York/Chicago closes。 If the opening is。above the close； the candle islored in—black。if you are using a pencil； any of fourteen different colors。if you are using the Bloomberg terminals GPC charts。 I like to use the 〃house colors〃 （which for us is。dark。blue） as。do many other professionals because it links。the research and the institution。 If the closing price is。above the open； the real body is。left white—based on white graph paper。
Second； as。the hours； days； and weeks。progress； the candles。change shape。 In the morning on the first of the month； the week； or at the top of the hour it can be very difficult to imagine how the candle might look。thirty days。later。 What may look extremely bullish at the start of the time frame can； of course； fizzle out into something inconclusive or even bee a reversal candle。
For example； prices。kick。off in the morning at X （a horizontal line）。 They then rally 2 percent； and the candle now has。a large white body and is。looking pretty bullish。 The market then collapses。in the afternoon by 2。5 percent； so you now have a long thin bit above a squat black。candle。 That produces。quite a different picture； a very bearish one。 The point is。to look。at the candles。at the end of the time period。 This。is。why； in ascending order； daily； weekly； monthly； and quarterly closes。above or below key chart levels。are important。 Imagine getting gung…ho with some share you tipped； earning brownie points。as。it breaks。to a new all…time high。 Then； by the end of the month the stocks。value retreats。to just below the point at which you bought it。 The candle would look like the one with bearish implications； which is。known as。an evening star or reverse hammer （picture a mallet）。 Think。again about thispany's。shares。 If you had remended it to colleagues； friends； and family； how would you feel？ Gutted probably； or at least disappointed。 And would you buy。more？ Probably not； as。your instinct would suggest sitting it out for a while to see if things。improve。
There is。one downside to candlesticks： their larger。size。 Each candle is。fatter than a bar； therefore they use more space on a page and； more important； more width on a puter screen。 This means you see less of the hourly； daily； weekly； or monthly data and therefore lose some of the footprints。and meanderings。of prior moves。 With markets。you fol…low closely； this。is。not too much of a problem as。you have the road map in your head。 With instruments。you look。at only occasionally； it can be trickier。
Reversal candles。are another substantial type of market indicator。 Important reversal candles have lovely names； including shooting star； bearish engulfing； three black crows； abandoned baby； and my favorite； hanging man。 The rest are mere foot soldiers。 Look。at the shapes。carefully and try to imagine what happened on that day or week； how…price action evolved over the period； the implications。for buyers。and sellers。and how they might be thinking at the time。 As。well as。these single； double； or triple candle reversal formations； note that the Japanese also use traditional patterns as。we do in the West： rounded bottom； double tops。and triangles； head…and…shoulders； and rectangles。
Cloud charting is。the second Japanese technique I have incorporated into my method。 Ichimoku Kinko Hyo—the correct name for cloud charting—was。invented by a Japanese journalist； Goichi Hosoda （1926…1983）； who wrote under the pseudonym Ichimoku Sanjin。 （The Chinese characters。that make up his。name translate roughly as。〃at one glance。。。of a man standing on a mountain。〃） On the Bloomberg terminal； cloud charts。are called General Overview Charts。（type in an instrument code and then GOC）； which gives。a much better feel for what these charts。can do。 The method was。revived by Hidenobu Sasaki （1950…） who updated it in the very。successful book。Ichimoku Kinko Studies （Toshi Raider Publishing； 1996）。 For the mathematically minded； or for those who would like to set this。up on a PC； the formula for the different lines。is。detailed in Figure 3。2。 For those like me with a pathological fear of algebra； whose eyes。glaze as。soon as。they see a Greek。letter； we shall work。through step…by…step in plain English how these charts。are set up and how they work。 （Also； remember that the Bloomberg terminal will draw all the lines。for you。）
What follows。are the five steps。necessary to set up these charts。
1。
Plot daily candlesticks。of your chosen instrument。 Because the Tokyo stock exchange closes for lunch； some traders。plot morning and afternoon sessions。separately。 Although traditional theory says。only daily candles can be used； many bend the rules。and use hourly and weekly。candles。 One reason to try and follow the conventions is。that if you don't you may be the only trader whose averages。have crossed （and you will be wondering why all the others。have not leapt into action）。 In fact； if you are too clever and tinker excessively； you may be very precise； but you will miss。the crowd psychology。
2。
Look。at the shapes。of the candles。first to see if there are any reversal formations。 These are easier to spot before you start drawing in all the other lines。
3。
Next； add nine…day and twenty…six…day averages。 These averages。are based on mean price （high minus。low divided by two）； not closing price。
Through extrusive manual back…testing； Ichimoku Sanjin decided that these two time frames worked best。 It may have something to do with the fact that in his day everyone worked a five…and…a…half…day week。and each month contained twenty…six working days。 Many have suggested changing the number of days。in the averages； perhaps。to ten and twenty。 I would； if most other people had； but as。they haven't； I won’t。 Again； you are trying to tune in to the mind…set of other investors。 There is。no point being ahead of my time； I want to know when the thundering herd will react。
The averages。are employed as。in conventional Western methods。 The shorter one （known as。die Conversion Line） whips。around the longer one （called the Base Line）。 When the nine…day average drops。below the Base Line； it is。time to convert from a long position to a short one。 On the way up； the opposite action is。called for so the trader always。has。an open position in the market。 （Obviously this。strategy only applies。to situations。in which one can go short。） The crucial insight about all moving averages。is that they work。well in trending markets。but are hopeless。for sideways。moves。 The tricky bit is。deciding whether and when the market has。switched from one mode to another； and for how long might it last。 Sometimes。the individual candles。can help with this—say a doji （a candle in which the opening price and the closing price were the same； forming a crossbar figure） appears。at the edge of a current horizontal move； this suggests。that the range will hold even if the averages。have crossed。 More often than not I would wait for confirmation with a weekly or monthly close outside the previousngestion zone to conclude that there is。indeed a new